As the year comes to a close, the LVH Art Journal looks back on the developments in the art market over the past twelve months. We’ve compiled the essential takeaways from important panel discussions, and insightful reports, as well as our own conversations with leading figures in the auction world and other industry experts.
One of the key reports shaping this article is the Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting, authored by art market expert Dr. Clare McAndrew. The report explores the purchasing behaviors of over 3,600 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) across 14 major markets during 2023 and the first half of 2024. This comprehensive report offers a clear perspective on the year gone by. This article offers a detailed analysis of the key trends currently shaping the art market to help guide us confidently into the year ahead! This article will address growing interest in works by emerging and female artists, the impact of the great wealth transfer, this year’s market demographics, regional shifts with a focus on the surge in sales from China, and the latest developments at auction houses, along with what lies ahead for them in the coming year.
Increased Sales of Emerging Artists and The Crucial Role of Art Fairs
The Global Collecting report revealed that HNWIs are increasingly interested in new and emerging artists, with 52% of their expenditure in 2023 and 2024 going toward works by these artists, up from 44% in previous years. This shift reflects a broader transformation in the art market, as noted by Noah Horowitz, who said that “at Art Basel Paris we saw tremendous interest in younger artists. This is a change we’ve witnessed over the last 20 to 30 years. It used to be that the Impressionist and Modernist works were the market drivers. The last major bubble, in the late '80s, was almost entirely Impressionist-driven, fueled largely by Japanese collectors. By the late '90s and 2000s, when the market began to recover, it shifted toward a contemporary focus. I think that there is a cultural zeitgeist for the contemporary, where we are seeing more and more people looking at contemporary culture as the thing they want to lean into and invest in. Culture has shifted.” This growing emphasis on contemporary art, fuelled by rising interest from the public and collectors, is highlighted by the Metropolitan Museum of Art's new modern and contemporary wing, with the first renderings recently released.
Art fairs are increasingly recognized as essential platforms for discovering emerging talent. According to the Global Collecting Report, nearly 45% of Art Basel's VIP attendees visit fairs specifically to find new artists or artworks to purchase, making fairs a key platform for such discoveries. There’s a growing trend of people investing in experiences rather than tangible goods, and art fairs offer the chance to do both. More than just a marketplace, art fairs provide a vibrant atmosphere where commerce meets creativity, allowing collectors to enjoy both the thrill of acquiring art and the cultural adventure of the fair itself. As Magnus Resch recently pointed out in an article for ARTnews, more people in the U.S. attend art events and museums than sports events, including NBA and NFL games.
Just as art fairs are vital for collectors to discover new artists, they are significant for galleries to find new clients. According to Artsy, 75% of those surveyed at 2023 art fairs gained new clients. However, rising costs—like shipping, travel, and accommodation—are leading galleries to scale back their participation slightly.
Purchasing Art by Female Artists and the Impact of the Great Wealth Transfer
The Global Collecting report revealed that in 2024, the share of works by female artists in HNWI collections rose to 44%, the highest level in seven years, up from 33% in 2018. Among HNWIs who spent over $10 million on art and antiques in 2024, 52% of their purchases were dedicated to female artists, while those spending between $1 million and $10 million had an even split, with 50% of their acquisitions from female artists.
Interest in historical female artists is on the rise, challenging the long-held dominance of male artists. Major institutions like the National Portrait Gallery in London and the Dia Foundation in New York have significantly expanded their collections of works by women. Within this growing focus, art by female Surrealists has become particularly sought-after, with figures like Remedios Varo and Leonora Carrington leading the charge. Their works have achieved record prices, driven by both increasing scarcity and rising international demand. According to The Luxury Playbook, sales of contemporary works by female artists exceeding $1 million have more than doubled since 2018.
The increase in spending on works by female artists could also be linked to the Great Wealth Transfer. As Paul Donovan explained, “This is part of the Great Wealth Transfer. Over the next twenty years or so, around 84 trillion US dollars will change hands… There is a lot of money moving around, and what is really interesting about this money moving around is that everyone automatically assumes the kids get it all. This is not necessarily what is going to happen. A reasonable chunk of this money, particularly in Europe and the United States, which is where most of this transfer takes place, will go sideways. Stereotypically in the boomer generation, wealth was disproportionately generated by men, and genetically, their wives will outlive them, so the money goes sideways. At the moment women own and control about 30% of global wealth, and I think within the next 2 years that will be more than half. Women will start to control a majority of the global wealth. We are seeing a shift here. Of course women don’t just buy women artists. But when I buy art, I am looking to buy art that is relevant to me and my life experience, the same will go for women.”
Market Demographics: Gen X vs Millennials
The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024 report (hereafter referred to as the Global Collecting Report) highlights that HNWIs from Generation X (those born between the mid-1960s and early 1980s) had the highest average spending in 2023, reaching $578,000—more than any other HNWI demographic. This trend continued into the first half of 2024. Millennials and Gen X consistently represented the largest group of $1M+ spenders, with 7% of buyers in 2023 falling into this category. However, while Millennial spending has decreased over the past two years, Gen X has seen modest growth (3%) and maintained the highest average spending during both 2023 and early 2024. Their spending outpaced Millennials by a third and was double that of Boomers and Gen Z. According to Noah Horowitz, the CEO of Art Basel, this shift can be attributed to Gen X’s familiarity with market cycles, which gives them confidence in the market’s ability to rebound—a perspective Millennials, with less cyclical experience, may not yet share.
In recent years, an increasing number of collectors have come to see art as a vital component of their wealth strategy. With the global art market projected to surpass $2.8 trillion by 2026, it is expected to account for roughly 11% of ultra-high-net-worth portfolios. Younger investors, particularly millennials and Gen Z, are also more inclined to hold tangible assets, with studies showing they are twice as likely to do so compared to older generations. According to the 2024 Bank of America Private Study, nearly all (98%) of these HNWIs now include art as part of their wealth management strategies, using it for purposes ranging from charitable giving and tax planning to liquidity management. This growing trend highlights art's transformation from solely a cultural asset, into a financial tool as well.
Regional breakdown: Surge in Mainland China’s Art Market
The Global Collecting Report shows that, in 2023 and the first half of 2024, HNWIs from Mainland China outspent their counterparts from other major regions on art and antiques. In fact, HNWIs from China spent more than double the amount of any other region, and this strong return to post-lockdown spending has persisted. Art market expert Dr. Clare McAndrew explained that China's surge in art spending followed the easing of strict Covid policies, with art being viewed as a cultural asset and promoted as such, distinct from other personal luxury goods, which have actually seen a decline in sales in China. Economist Paul Donovan noted that, globally, there's been a shift toward spending on experiences, with art and art purchasing categorized within this sector. In China, strict Covid-19 travel restrictions redirected consumer spending toward art, as people sought to invest in meaningful experiences and collectibles. But even after the restrictions were lifted, this purchasing trend has continued. LVH Art spoke with luxury brand consultant Judith Mizrahi, who noted, “Gone are the days when Chinese consumers primarily sought out logos. Today, their interests run deeper, drawn to items that offer knowledge or carry meaningful stories. Knowledge has become a form of social currency, which may help explain the rising trend of art purchases in China, as art works provide stories, perspectives, and insights.” Another reason to explain this is Hong Kong's position as Asia's "freeport," with low or no taxes and streamlined trade processes, making it an attractive hub for art transactions. Martin Wilson, chairman of the British Art Market Federation, emphasized the need for the UK to simplify its import and export procedures to remain competitive with the US and Hong Kong, which offer more favorable business conditions. While the buying trend in China remains strong, it may taper off next year, with signs of a slowdown already visible. It will be interesting to see how this evolves.
The Auction World
New York auctions have long been a key barometer for the art market's health, so let’s take a closer look at the recent sales from November. Christie’s Postwar and Contemporary evening auction on November 21st stood out for its high-profile consignments, strong bidding, and the setting of 11 new auction records. Other noteworthy highlights included a $6.2 million Maurizio Cattelan banana at Sotheby’s and a $121.1 million Magritte at Christie’s. The sale of the Magritte painting, which made her the 16th artist to surpass the $100 million mark, was driven by an intense 10-minutes of bidding. Additionally, competitively priced works by emerging artists showed strong performance.
The overall market this year and in 2023 exhibited a more cautious tone, in contrast to the record-breaking sales of 2022, which were fuelled by pent-up demand from the pandemic era. While results were solid, many works sold for just above their estimates, which, though not a bidding frenzy, was a reassuring sign that auction houses' expectations were aligned with the art market.
Several ultra-contemporary artists have seen remarkable success in the auction market this year. To understand their influence and future potential, we spoke with Nicole Ching, Specialist Advisor at Christie’s. She explained, “They are still an incredibly important and vital part of our auctions. The wider list of names has now been trimmed down but for this select group, they still dominate the top of our client’s wish lists and perform exceptionally well at auction. The market moves quickly, but I feel like the names that are still with us post the market correction will remain resilient and we will continue to see exceptional results for them next year.”
Single-owner sales have also remained as significant as ever. Notable examples include Sotheby’s auction of Sydell Miller’s collection and Christie’s sale of Mica Ertegun’s collection. These curated sales continue to drive strong market interest and influence. As Ashkan Baghestani, SVP and Head of Contemporary Art at Sotheby’s told us, “There are three reasons why single owner sales do so well. Firstly, the art market right now is really focused and interested in new stories, and these single owner sales bring these new stories to the market. It’s the vision of a single couple or individual— their eye and what they collected ahead of the curve. Secondly, a lot of these single-owner collections include masterpieces, and at a time when access to museum-quality pieces has become harder, it makes them highly desirable. Also, they present a unique opportunity to offer a diverse range of artworks at various price points, especially when the collection offers a evening and day sale component. It’s an occasion for everyone in the market who is looking for a work with exceptional provenance.”
Auction houses are expanding to solidify their global presence. Sotheby’s moved into a larger space in Paris in October and have also taken over Hong Kong’s Chater House, previously occupied by Armani. They’ve also acquired the Breuer Building on Madison Avenue, which will become their new headquarters in 2025, and will be what Mr. Baghestani describes as “a huge moment for Sotheby’s. The building carries an incredible energy from the works it has hosted in its lifetime, and it will be great to continue that with our auctions and exhibitions that feature museum quality works.”
In September 2024, Christie’s unveiled its new Asia headquarters at The Henderson in Hong Kong. Kelly Crow of The Wall Street Journal notes that auction houses investing in physical spaces in Hong Kong are seeing positive returns as the market grows. She emphasized, “there is an audience (in Hong Kong) that is not going away and we can’t ignore them.” About unveiling their new headquarters in Hong Kong, Nicole from Christie’s told us that, “The Henderson is a testament to our commitment not only to the Greater China Region, but to Asia in general. We have seen strong Asian bidding across all categories internationally and we hope that having a permanent landmark location in Hong Kong will further our development there.”
The art market in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, is growing and they are establishing themselves as an increasingly influential players in the global art world. Sotheby’s is set to open a new location in Saudi Arabia in 2025. Mr. Baghestani, who is one of the leads on this inaugural auction, told us that “hosting our first auction in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the World Heritage site of Diriyah—will be a truly unique experience. The preview will run from January 30 to February 8, and the auction will follow an evening sale format, with a split between global fine art and luxury. This takes place in a context where Saudi Arabia is growing as an art hub, under the supervision and leadership of the ministry of culture. Our auction will coincide with the Islamic Biennale in Jeddah, making it an exciting time for the arts in the region.” Christie’s was the first global auction house to obtain a commercial license to operate in Saudi Arabia, and as Nicole shared with us, “there will be some more exciting new developments in the Middle East which I can't disclose now but you will hear about soon!”
Wrap-up
Bank of America's latest report highlights a rise in collector engagement in 2024, driven by favorable market conditions. Their report "Art Market Update" attributes this increase to lower auction estimates, gallery discounts, and recent interest rate cuts, all of which are motivating buyers. These trends are expected to persist into 2025, creating a positive outlook for the market. While 2022 saw a full return from most COVID-19 restrictions worldwide, 2023 was a year of adaptation, as the lingering effects of the pandemic continued to impact the global economy. 2024 has continued this trend, with the art market still in a phase of recalibration. However, despite these challenges, optimism is on the rise, driven by new opportunities across regions, the expansion of innovative platforms, and a renewed energy in the art world.
Key papers, panels and discussions that informed this article include:
The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024 report (link)
The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global collecting panel discussion that took place on October 24th and featured four speakers: Kelly Crow, a seasoned art market journalist with The Wall Street Journal since 2006; Dr. Clare McAndrew, founder of Arts Economics and author of the report that framed the conversation; Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management; and Noah Horowitz, CEO of Art Basel. The discussion centered on the Global Collecting Report, authored by Dr. McAndrew, which provides key insights into the art market.
Bank of America's report, Art Market Update Fall 2024: Opportunity Knocks? (link)
The New York times article- Without Drama or Banana, Art Auctions Struggle by Zachary Small, Scott Reyburn and Julia Halperin (link)
Art Art newspaper article- Uk Import fall 16% for second year (link)
The Artsy Art Fair Report (link)
ARTNews article- Without a New Approach, Art Fairs Are at Risk of Strangling Galleries by Magnus Resch (link)
Artlogic Connect '24 panel discussion: Beyond the Election Day and Macro Challenges Facing the Art Market in 2025 (link)
The Luxury Playbook (link)
Financial Times article - Sotheby’s announces new outpost in Saudi Arabia by Melanie Gerlis (link)
Financial Times article - In Miami, the art world reacts to a post-Trump landscape by Melanie Gerlis (link)
The Week in Art podcasts
